Candidate countries have been told for two decades that their future lies in the EU. What they need now is a sequence of dates and conditions that both sides can be held to.
Trade barriers create their own constituencies. Companies and governments should plan for them to stay.
From payment systems to shipping lanes, the most consequential arrangements are being made without the great powers in the room.
Governments from the Caucasus to Central Asia are hedging, and outside powers should stop expecting loyalty.
Coalitions of willing lenders can move faster than global negotiations, and the countries most exposed cannot afford to wait.
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